A new insight brief, ‘Uncertainty at the IMO: Three scenarios and their consequences for shipping’s transition’, compiled by Dr Tristan Smith, Associate Professor, UCL Energy Institute; Director, UMAS and Femke Spiegelenberg, Project Manager of the Global Maritime Forum’s Getting to Zero Coalition, explores the different plausible outcomes for the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework.
The potential scenarios range from adopting the NZF ‘as is’, to single-tier fuel standard with lower compliance costs, to a scenario with the removal of economic elements altogether. Each will have materially different impacts on enforcement, investment signals, revenues, low-income countries, and regional policies.
The insight brief concludes that:
- Alternative scenarios currently on the table would provide little or no demand signal and revenue to support uptake of the scalable zero-emission fuels needed in the long run
- The alternatives to the NZF being discussed would still raise costs for lower income countries, but would severely limit the capacity to support their transitions and mitigate disproportionate impacts
- Alternative scenarios are more likely to encourage regulatory fragmentation, heightened investment risk, and decreased alignment with the IMO’s overall emissions reduction strategy
- While the Net-Zero Framework is imperfect, many of these risk factors could be managed through the development of its guidelines for implementation.
The document can be downloaded here.
